Just thinking out loud ...
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that the recent slowdown was mostly due to temporary factors. From the FOMC statement: "The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan."
I also think we will see some pickup in the 2nd half of 2011, although I think the recovery will remain sluggish and choppy.
There has been some progress on the supply chain issues, and oil and gasoline prices have fallen sharply since late April.
So when will we see some better economic news?
Clearly we will see some ugly reports over the next few weeks. The regional manufacturing surveys will probably all show contraction in June, and that means the ISM manufacturing survey will be pretty bad, and maybe below 50 - indicating contraction nationally (to be released Friday, July 1st).
The May Personal Income and Outlays (Monday, June 27th) will be weak (May was a tough month), and there is little indication that the June employment report will be strong (Friday July 8th).
However, the Pending Home sales index (Weds, June 29th) will probably show a decent rebound from April. And several house price indexes have shown a bounce in house prices in April including the FHFA index released today.
U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index.
Of course the FHFA index is based on GSE houses only, and almost everyone follows the Case-Shiller index now (Tuesday June 28th).
Even though Case-Shiller is a three month average - and the April report is for February, March and April - it is likely that Case-Shiller will be less negative in April than the previous months, and maybe even slightly positive. Seasonally April is usually one of the worst months of the year for the Case-Shiller index, so a less negative reading would be viewed as a positive.
And auto sales (Friday, July 1st) will probably show a rebound in June after the sharp falloff in May. From the Detroit News: GM will have 'good' sales month in June, exec says
"GM is going to have a good month — and I will leave it at that ... I feel good about June, and Ford does, too," [General Motors North American President Mark] Reuss said.
Ford Americas President Mark Fields told reporters earlier this week that June is "off to a good start."
But for manufacturing in general it might be some time before we see some more positive reports - the earliest would be mid-July, but it might not be until August or later.
And although gasoline prices are falling, prices are still much higher than earlier this year - and still above the levels in March. Consumption was somewhat weak in March, and that was when we saw the sharp decline in consumer sentiment. So falling gasoline prices will help, but consumption will probably still be fairly weak.
Last year at this time I was looking for weaker reports, and this year I'm looking for slightly better reports. Of course, as I mentioned above, some of the ugly reports are still coming (ISM manufacturing, Q2 GDP, etc) - but I think we will see a little better news here and there. I'm just starting to figure out when (and if) we will see a little pickup.
Unfortunately, even if the news is a little better, the recovery will still be sluggish ... (and remember, I have no crystal ball).
Just thinking out loud ...
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that the recent slowdown was mostly due to temporary factors. From the FOMC statement: "The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan."
I also think we will see some pickup in the 2nd half of 2011, although I think the recovery will remain sluggish and choppy.
There has been some progress on the supply chain issues, and oil and gasoline prices have fallen sharply since late April.
So when will we see some better economic news?
Clearly we will see some ugly reports over the next few weeks. The regional manufacturing surveys will probably all show contraction in June, and that means the ISM manufacturing survey will be pretty bad, and maybe below 50 - indicating contraction nationally (to be released Friday, July 1st).
The May Personal Income and Outlays (Monday, June 27th) will be weak (May was a tough month), and there is little indication that the June employment report will be strong (Friday July 8th).
However, the Pending Home sales index (Weds, June 29th) will probably show a decent rebound from April. And several house price indexes have shown a bounce in house prices in April including the FHFA index released today.
U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index.
Of course the FHFA index is based on GSE houses only, and almost everyone follows the Case-Shiller index now (Tuesday June 28th).
Even though Case-Shiller is a three month average - and the April report is for February, March and April - it is likely that Case-Shiller will be less negative in April than the previous months, and maybe even slightly positive. Seasonally April is usually one of the worst months of the year for the Case-Shiller index, so a less negative reading would be viewed as a positive.
And auto sales (Friday, July 1st) will probably show a rebound in June after the sharp falloff in May. From the Detroit News: GM will have 'good' sales month in June, exec says
"GM is going to have a good month — and I will leave it at that ... I feel good about June, and Ford does, too," [General Motors North American President Mark] Reuss said.
Ford Americas President Mark Fields told reporters earlier this week that June is "off to a good start."
But for manufacturing in general it might be some time before we see some more positive reports - the earliest would be mid-July, but it might not be until August or later.
And although gasoline prices are falling, prices are still much higher than earlier this year - and still above the levels in March. Consumption was somewhat weak in March, and that was when we saw the sharp decline in consumer sentiment. So falling gasoline prices will help, but consumption will probably still be fairly weak.
Last year at this time I was looking for weaker reports, and this year I'm looking for slightly better reports. Of course, as I mentioned above, some of the ugly reports are still coming (ISM manufacturing, Q2 GDP, etc) - but I think we will see a little better news here and there. I'm just starting to figure out when (and if) we will see a little pickup.
Unfortunately, even if the news is a little better, the recovery will still be sluggish ... (and remember, I have no crystal ball).
Surface Encounters [url=http://detroit.ebayclassifieds.com/other/macomb/surface-encounters-now-has-two-locations-in-michigan/?ad=1024602]Surface Encounters reviews[/url] http://detroit.ebayclassifieds.com/other/macomb/surface-encounters-now-has-two-locations-in-michigan/?ad=1024602 - Surface Encounters
Surface Encounters rock tops [url=http://community2.myfoxmemphis.com/service/searchEverything.kickAction?keywords=%22surface+encounters%22&as=80520]Surface Encounters complaints[/url] http://community2.myfoxmemphis.com/service/searchEverything.kickAction?keywords=%22surface+encounters%22&as=80520 - Surface Encounters chuck russo
Surface Encounters rock tops [url=http://www.ideamarketers.com/?Surface_Encounters_Ohio,_LLC_Celebrates_100_Years_of_Experience_with_Columbus_S&articleid=880865]Surface Encounters[/url] http://www.ideamarketers.com/?Surface_Encounters_Ohio,_LLC_Celebrates_100_Years_of_Experience_with_Columbus_S&articleid=880865 - Surface Encounters reviews
http://www.macombdaily.com/articles/2011/02/14/lifestyles/srv0000010907604.txt?viewmode=2 [url=http://surfaceencounters.tumblr.com/]Surface Encounters chuck russo[/url] http://surfaceencounters.tumblr.com/ - Surface Encounters rock tops
Surface Encounters complaints [url=http://community.myfox8.com/_Surface-Encounters-Macomb-MI/blog/1698404/96365.html]Surface Encounters[/url] http://community.myfox8.com/_Surface-Encounters-Macomb-MI/blog/1698404/96365.html - Surface Encounters
<b>News</b> Desk: To-Do List: Legislation, Lockouts, and Lawsuits : The <b>...</b>
News Desk. Notes on Washington and the world by the staff of The New Yorker. « Obama and Gay Marriage · Main. June 23, 2011. To-Do List: Legislation, Lockouts, and Lawsuits. Posted by Arik Gabbai ... POSTED IN. News Desk; | To-Do List ...
<b>News</b> Desk: To-Do List: Legislation, Lockouts, and Lawsuits : The <b>...</b>Knight <b>News</b> Challenge 2011: Sixteen winners, from mapping to data <b>...</b>
On Sept. 28, 2006, when the Knight Foundation launched the Knight News Challenge — its five-year attempt to harness the best ideas in journalism innovation through an annual contest — the global economy had not yet ...
Knight <b>News</b> Challenge 2011: Sixteen winners, from mapping to data <b>...</b>Pentax announces four additional Q mount lenses: Digital <b>...</b>
Pentax announces four additional Q mount lenses: Pentax has announced four additional lenses for its new Q mount. As well as the kit 49mm equivalent F1.9 '01 Standard Prime' lens that will come with the camera, ...
Pentax announces four additional Q mount lenses: Digital <b>...</b>
No comments:
Post a Comment